I’m trying this predictions game again!
I’m not really sure what I learned from last year’s predictions. I tried to veer more towards 0.5 where I wasn’t sure, and thought a little harder about the 0.2s and 0.8s, but I don’t think either cue changed much. It’s probably not what I was meant to learn. I’m not really expecting much improvement this round, but it’s only my second time, and I’m sure it takes longer than two cycles to get the hang of it.
How to read these:
The number at the end of each line is a probability. So “0.1” means I think it has a 0.1 (10%) chance of happening (i.e., I think it’s very unlikely to happen), and “0.5” means I think it has about the same odds as a coin flip.
To make the calibration categories large enough, I’ve restricted myself to multiples of 0.1.
Unless otherwise specified, all events mean on or before 31 December 2023.
I did at most 2–3 minutes of research on each of these (normally none), so some probabilities just reflect that I don’t know much about the topic.
Awkwardly, some of my draft predictions resolved before I published this, and circumstances substantially changed for others. I’ve updated the affected predictions so that they’re my positions as of today. I didn’t have a line about Jacinda Ardern remaining prime minister until the election (if I did, it would’ve been 0.9), but I did have one about the election being by the end of September (was 0.4).
From the Astral Codex Ten Prediction Contest
The first 45 predictions are just the ones in the Astral Codex Ten contest:
The rules of the contest permitted entrants to skip some questions. I tried to answer as many as I could, but I drew the line at “I know nothing about the context here”.
These are my (rounded) Blind Mode answers. I’m not entering Full Mode. Also, the prediction contest permitted any integer percentage. For my actual contest entry, I did so; the below probabilities are rounded to the nearest 0.1.
ACX: World
1. Will Vladimir Putin be President of Russia? — 0.9
2. Will Ukraine control the city of Sevastopol? — 0.1
3. Will Ukraine control the city of Luhansk? — 0.3
4. Will Ukraine control the city of Zaporizhzhia? — 0.7
5. Will there be a lasting cease-fire in the Russia-Ukraine war? — 0.3
6. Will the Kerch Bridge be destroyed, such that no vehicle can pass over it? — 0.4
7. Will an issue involving a nuclear power plant in Ukraine require evacuation of a populated area? — 0.3
8. Will a nuclear weapon be detonated (including tests and accidents)? — 0.2
9. Will a nuclear weapon be used in war (ie not a test or accident) and kill at least 10 people? — 0.1
10. Will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan? — 0.1
11. Will any new country join NATO? — 0.2
12. Will Ali Khameini cease to be Supreme Leader of Iran? — 0.2
13. Will any other war have more casualties than Russia-Ukraine? — 0.1
14. Will there be more than 25 million confirmed COVID cases in China? — 0.4
ACX: US/UK politics
15. Will prediction markets say Joe Biden is the most likely Democratic nominee for President in 2024? — 0.7
16. Will prediction markets say Gavin Newsom is the most likely Democratic nominee for President in 2024? — 0.2
17. Will prediction markets say Donald Trump is the most likely Republican nominee for President in 2024? — 0.7
18. Will prediction markets say Ron DeSantis is the most likely Republican nominee for President in 2024? — 0.1
19. Will the Supreme Court rule against affirmative action? — 0.8
20. Will there be any change in the composition of the Supreme Court? — 0.3
21. Will Donald Trump make at least one tweet? — 0.7
22. Will Joe Biden have a positive (approval minus dispproval) rating? — 0.2
23. Will Donald Trump get indicted on criminal charges? — 0.7
24. Will a major US political figure be killed or wounded in an assassination attempt? — 0.1
25. Will Rishi Sunak be Prime Minister of the UK? — 0.4
26. Will the UK hold a general election? — 0.1
ACX: Business and economy
27. Will Elon Musk remain owner of Twitter? — 0.6
28. Will Twitter's net income be higher in 2023 than in 2022? — 0.4
29. Will Twitter's average monetizable daily users be higher in 2023 than in 2022? — 0.6
30. Will US CPI inflation for 2023 average above 4%? — 0.7
31. Will the S&P 500 index go up over 2023? — 0.6
32. Will the S&P 500 index reach a new all-time high? — 0.2
33. Will the Shanghai index of Chinese stocks go up over 2023? — 0.6
34. Will Bitcoin go up over 2023? — 0.6
35. Will Bitcoin end 2023 above $30,000? — 0.2
[skipped]. Will Tether de-peg?
36. Will the US unemployment rate (now 3.7%) be above 4% in November 2023? — 0.7
37. Will any FAANG or Musk company accept crypto as a payment? — 0.1
ACX: Science and tech
38. Will OpenAI release GPT-4? — 0.3
[skipped]. Will SpaceX's Starship reach orbit?
39. Will an image model win Scott Alexander’s bet on compositionality, to Edwin Chen’s satisfaction? — 0.7
40. Will COVID kill at least 50% as many people in 2023 as it did in 2022? — 0.4
41. Will a new version of COVID be substantially able to escape Omicron vaccines? — 0.5
[skipped]. Will Google, Meta, Amazon, or Apple release an AR headset?
[skipped]. Will an ordinary person be able to take a self-driving taxi from Oakland → SF during rush hour?
[skipped]. Will a cultured meat product be available in at least one US store or restaurant for less than $30?
42. Will a successful deepfake attempt causing real damage make the front page of a major news source? — 0.3
43. Will WHO declare a new Global Health Emergency? — 0.2
44. Will AI win a programming competition? — 0.4
45. Will someone release "DALL-E, but for videos"? — 0.3
Other predictions
New Zealand election
46. Labour leads the government formed after the general election — 0.4
47. Greens win at least as many seats in the general election as they have now (10) — 0.7
48. ACT wins at least as many seats in the general election as they have now (10) — 0.6
49. TOP's share of the party vote is at least what it was in 2020 (1.51%) — 0.4
50. New Zealand First re-enters Parliament — 0.3
51. It is clear on election night (before 8am the next day) which major party will form the next government — 0.6
52. An MP resigns from their party before the general election due to a conflict or scandal — 0.7
53. Chris Hipkins remains leader of the Labour Party until the general election — 0.8
54. National has a contested leadership vote before the general election — 0.1
55. Green Party triggers a leadership contest during 2023 (before or after the election) — 0.5
56. Raf Manji wins the Ilam electorate — 0.1
57. Chris Bishop wins the Hutt South electorate — 0.2
58. Arena Williams wins the Manurewa electorate — 0.9
59. I cast my party vote for a major party (Labour or National) — 0.3
New Zealand politics and economy
60. The government abandons the RNZ–TVNZ merger — 0.6
61. The government abandons the Three Waters reforms — 0.2
62. New Zealand makes a bivalent COVID-19 booster vaccine available to all adults before 1 July — 0.5
63. New Zealand reintroduces a pre-departure testing requirement for inbound travellers from any country — 0.2
64. A public entity in New Zealand suffers a data breach or ransomware attack making headline news — 0.8
65. A major scandal engulfs Wayne Brown (enough cause serious damage to his reputation) — 0.1
66. QV House Price Index annual change to 1 November 2023 is at least 0% — 0.4
67. Inflation in New Zealand in the September 2023 year is at least 5% — 0.4
68. New Zealand official cash rate is at least 7% at some point during the year — 0.5
69. Unemployment in New Zealand is at least 5% in at least one quarter (up to September 2023) — 0.3
Personal
70. I can hold a handstand for at least 15 seconds — 0.8
71. I can hold a human flag for at least 1 second — 0.6
72. I run a race of at least 10km — 0.2
73. I do a [redacted] — 0.7
74. I start [redacted] — 0.2
75. I resume doing WCS regularly — 0.2
76. I attend a WSDC registry event outside Oceania and North America — 0.7
77. I attend solo dance classes regularly for the whole year — 0.8
78. I move out of my current house — 0.2
79. I enter a relationship — 0.1
80. I write at least five posts in Substack after this one — 0.4
81. I coach a debating team — 0.1
82. I visit the Bay Area — 0.5
83. I commit to a teacher training programme for 2024 — 0.4
84. [My employer] [redacted] — 0.3
85. [My team at work] [redacted] — 0.8
86. I complete efforts to understand at least one education-related topic on my personal research backlog — 0.2
Friends
87. I see at least one non-Kiwi friend from the Bay Area while they're visiting New Zealand — 0.1
88. [friend] moves to [country] — 0.1
89. [friend] moves to [country] — 0.8
90. [friend] is pregnant (or gives birth) — 0.4
91. [friend] is pregnant (or gives birth) — 0.4
92. [friend] becomes eligible to [redacted] — 0.7
93. [friend] becomes eligible to [redacted] — 0.4
94. [friend] becomes eligible to [redacted] — 0.3
95. [friend] earns at least one [redacted] — 0.8
96. [friends] get engaged — 0.3
97. [friends] get engaged — 0.2
98. [friend] defends [his/her] thesis — 0.8
99. [friend] defends [his/her] thesis — 0.7
100. [friend] defends [his/her] thesis — 0.2