NZ Prediction Contest 2025
After I did my last predictions post for 2023, a friend reached out to me to say that he had taken my list and made a spreadsheet where he and his friends could enter numbers in a little contest. This year I thought it might be fun to do this—to invite others to submit probabilities on prediction questions about New Zealand politics, economics and sport. So I put together a list of 36 questions (some of which came from friends), like
Will the Treaty Principles Bill pass its second reading?
Will Wayne Brown be re-elected as mayor of Auckland?
Will Auckland FC play in the A-League Men grand final?
and anyone who wants to play can give a probability for each question. At the end of the year we’ll tally scores. It’s basically the same idea as the ACX Prediction Contest, which ACX runs about the US and the world, but smaller and run by a less qualified human.
Here it is, if you want to take part: NZ Prediction Contest 2025. The deadline for entries is 9 February 2025. All the details are there, so that the form is self-contained.